Coronavirus, how to read the bulletin of the Civil Protection and the data on the infection

New infections, deaths, swabs. For days, for months now, also on these pages, to ensure that you it is the correct, complete and timely, and we have unfortunately become familiar with terms related to emergency Coronavirus, and with the bulletin of the Civil Protection, released at 18. An essential tool for understanding the progress of the contagion, but that is not always easy to understand. To help you navigate this sea of data and statistics, with the hope of being able to forget as soon as possible, we have decided to offer you a guide on how to address the reading.

The most useful way to read the schema of the bulletin – it May seem strange but in order to be more understandable, the table (here today) should be read from right to left. Starting from the data relating to the buffers, and then move to the total cases, exclude deceased and healed to get the subjects currently positive and finally get to see how these are divided on the territory, in the hospital or in the home.

The bulletin today you Can find at this link the complete data and a brief analysis of the numbers today, those that we offer and we will continue to offer you, day after day, at the time of publication on the part of the Civil Protection. In summary, the data of the infection are the following.

Currently positive: 20.637 (-335)
Deceased: 34.657 (+23, +0,1%)
Discharged/Healed: 183.426 (+533, +0,3%)
Hospitalized in the Intensive care unit: 127 (-21, 14.2% respectively)
Swabs: 5.013.342 (+28.972)
Total cases: 238.720 (+221, +0,1%)

The bulletins of the regional – Before going into detail, it is good to specify how it is composed of the national bulletin. At different times of the day, each regional department of Civil Protection provides the data found on their own territory. Although the criteria tend to be uniform, there are slight differences that can lead to inconsistencies. It happened that some Regions have indicated that certain data by 18, with the result that they were then counted at the national level the next day, “distorting” the slightly the national bulletin. Also, not all policies are standard. For example, buffers: to date, Basilicata has never indicated the existence of two tests performed on the same person. This means that or not is carried out a second swab to ensure healing, or simply not being reported.

Specifically: the bulletin of the Lombardy region – as the region has been the epicenter at the level of Italian of the epidemic, from the time we presented, more or less simultaneously with the national bulletin, Lombardy. Also in this case, there is some difference in the indicators: presents only new infections, not the increase or the decrease of active cases compared to the previous day. Also, he speaks of the persons discharged, or at the national level come together generically in the healed; later we will explain briefly the difference, but in substance, the bulletin issued at 18 by the Civil Protection overestimation of the healed in Lombardy, because a person discharged not necessarily is also healed.

HOW TO READ THE DATA –

New infections – Is the number of those who have been tested and have had a positive outcome. Does not take into account, for obvious reasons, of the people infected who, not having carried out the swab, do not fall between the confirmed cases. In the last 24 hours have been 221.

Currently, the positive Is the total number of people who, at the time of publication of the bulletin, are suffering from Covid-19. With respect to the total number of cases, does not include the deceased and the healed. As of the date hereof are 20.637.

Increase or decrease – Is the variation of the number of subjects currently positive with respect to the previous day. To take account of new infections (leading to an increase), as well as of the healed and of the deceased (which lead to a decrease). Is the figure around which there was and we still today the most confusion, because in the early stages of the epidemic (as there is right now many dead or healed) not deviating much from the number of new infections. For a long time has had a positive sign. Now it is in the negative, as the dead and (thankfully mostly) healed are more new cases of the infection. In the last 24 hours is equal to -335: the sum of the dead (23), and healed (533) exceed, in fact, the total of new cases (221).

Deceased – Is the number of people dying after officially contract the Covid-19. As has been repeatedly explained both by Civil Protection and by the doctors, does not necessarily indicate that the main cause of death is the infection: for this it is necessary a validation of the ISS, which has a long time. This data, conversely, does not take into account people who, despite having contracted the disease, have never had any in the statistics of confirmed cases for not having carried out the test. In the last 24 hours have been 23, for a total of 34.657 deceased from the beginning of the pandemic.

Healed – One of those items that, without entering into the merits, it creates the most debate at a scientific level. Includes both the subjects simply discharged and healed from the clinical point of view, that the subjects actually cured-level virologic, according to the guidelines of the Superior Health Council, because subjected to testing that ascertains the negativity. Today were 533, for a total of 183.426 from the beginning of the pandemic.

In isolation in the home – Are the people who, having no symptoms or having mild symptoms, were positive for the Coronavirus and can’t move from their home until a new buffer is not ensure healing. They are in quarantine. And are the vast majority of infected: to date, 18.472 people.

Hospitalized with symptoms – it Is the subject that, since a positive test result, exhibit symptoms that required hospitalization, but not to require the use of the machinery of the intensive care unit. Today, it is 2.038 hospitalized.

Admitted to icu – A given key: indicates the people currently in intensive care. Is an index that is purely numerical: non-specific, in fact, because a number of people come out from T. I. (in fact, can be discharged, but hospitalized in a ward or deceased), and does not indicate how many people have entered into or outputs from the T. I. in the day. For instance: yesterday i admitted to icu was 148, today I am 127. This does not mean that 21 people are actually outputs from the intensive care unit. Could be, probably are, more and new inputs have made it less obvious that the number of resignation. Taking it to the extreme: to the absurd, all the people who yesterday were in the icu may be the outputs and have been replaced by new infections. It is not so, of course, but it is an example that we hope will make clear the concept.

Buffers – Is the number of tests carried out to date. Grew up in a progressive manner: on the 23rd of march, for example, the pads made were 275.468, with an increase of 17.066 compared to the previous day. In the bulletin today, we have come to 5.013.342, with an increase in 28.972 than yesterday. In practice, with the passage of time went from approximately 20 thousand to a number to double, triple or even more of the tests made on the day (on the weekend of decrease). For this reason, with respect to the absolute number of swabs carried out, it is even more important to relate this data with the number of confirmed cases. In any case, the count of the tests performed in a day does not tell us how many people have been subjected to the tampon.

Cases tested – in Fact, this is the number that indicates how many people actually have been controlled in a day. As of the date hereof, with respect to 5.013.342 swabs carried out, the cases tested are 3.057.902. Why? The answer is simple: in many cases, the buffer is carried out on people who have already been subjected to testing and who need to do it again, or because they have previously tested negative but may have contracted the virus, or especially because you previously are, positive results and should be carried out a new test to find something the healing.

Total cases – this Is the number of persons for whom, from the beginning of the epidemic, it has been confirmed a case of infection by Coronavirus. It is composed of the total of active cases, the more I healed and the deceased. As of the date hereof are 238.720, of which 20.637 currently positive, 183.426 healed and 34.657 deceased.